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Practice — Long-Term Value & Delayed Reward Systems (5 questions)

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Quantify a Churn-Reduction Feature Against LTV Permalink →

A subscription product has 4,000,000 active subscribers, average monthly margin $12/subscriber, monthly churn currently 6%, and the company discounts future cash flow at 1.5%/month.

  1. Compute current LTV per subscriber.
  2. A proposed onboarding-flow redesign is projected to reduce monthly churn to 5.3% but will cost an estimated $2.1M to build and requires a small ongoing $150K/month support cost. Compute the new LTV per subscriber and determine whether the redesign is worth building, showing your reasoning (state any assumption about payback horizon).
  3. A separate proposal instead focuses on raising average margin from $12 to $12.60 (a pricing change) with no effect on churn. Compute its LTV impact per subscriber and compare the two proposals. Which lever is more sensitive to a 5% relative change, and why does that matter for how you'd prioritize future experiments?

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Detect and Respond to Proxy Metric Divergence

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Fix a Biased Churn Training Set Built from Censored Data

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Tune the Blend Weight Between Proxy and Long-Term Value

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Choose an Attribution Window for a Re-Engagement Campaign

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