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Practice — Case Study: Real-Time Payment Fraud Detection (Stripe / PayPal-style) (5 questions)

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Why PR-AUC Beats ROC-AUC at 0.1% Fraud Prevalence Permalink →

Your fraud model is evaluated on 2,000,000 transactions containing 2,000 fraud cases (0.1 %). Model A flags 12,000 transactions and catches 1,600 fraud. Model B flags 5,000 transactions and catches 1,400 fraud.

  1. Compute the recall, false-positive rate, and precision for each model.
  2. Explain why the two models look almost identical on an ROC curve but very different on a precision-recall curve.
  3. Which model would you ship if manual review capacity is 5,000 transactions/day, and why?

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Label Maturity and Selective Labels

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Cost-Based Thresholds Across Transaction Amounts

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Training/Serving Skew in a Velocity Feature

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Responding to an Adaptive Fraud Ring

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