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Interpreting ADF and KPSS Together

You run both tests on a monthly revenue series and get:

  • ADF: p-value = 0.42 (fail to reject H_0: unit root)
  • KPSS: p-value = 0.01 (reject H_0: stationary)
  1. What does this combination indicate, and what should you do to the series before fitting an ARMA model?
  2. After first-differencing, ADF gives p = 0.001 and KPSS gives p = 0.15. What do you conclude now, and what does the "d" in ARIMA(p,d,q) equal?
  3. A colleague argues "just always difference twice to be safe — it can't hurt." Explain what is wrong with that.

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