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Bad Controls, Colliders and the Adjust-for-Everything Reflex
A colleague estimates the effect of a premium onboarding call (offered to some new B2B accounts by sales reps) on 12-month contract value. Their regression includes: company size, industry, region, number of seats activated in month 1, whether the account opened a support ticket, and the sales rep's identity. The dataset is restricted to accounts that renewed at least once.
- Identify each control that is problematic and explain the causal structure that makes it so.
- Explain the sample restriction using a DAG argument.
- What adjustment set would you use, and what would you add to the analysis to address the confounding you cannot measure?
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